COLORADO LEGISLATIVE STRATEGIES NEWSLETTER

Introduction

If we’ve learned anything from last week’s election, it’s that voter turnout matters. That being said, preliminary data from across the country shows slightly lower voter turnout in this year’s election than in 2020. In 2020, voter turnout reached a record breaking 66 percent nationwide. That number slightly decreased this year, with 64 percent turnout nationwide.

Colorado saw a similar trend, but a larger decrease than what we saw across the country. 72 percent of eligible voters in Colorado participated in this year’s election. However, this is down from the 78 percent of eligible voters in Colorado who participated in the 2020 election, and the 74 percent who participated in the 2016 election.

In Colorado specifically, in a few key races this could’ve been the difference for Democrats. At the federal level, Republicans flipped the 8th Congressional District seat – the most competitive congressional seat in Colorado. At the state level, not only did Senate Republicans prevent a Democrat supermajority, but the House Republicans are also on track to flip three seats and prevent another Democrat supermajority.

Now that the election is over (or almost over if you’re in House District 16 and House District 19), lawmakers have already started to prepare for the 2025 legislative session. This includes tight recounts, addressing the state’s tight budget, and a possible game of musical chairs for vacancy appointments come January, so let’s get into it. 
House District 16 and House District 19 Update

After more than a week of intense ballot curing since Election Day, the fate of the House Democrats’ supermajority is one big step closer to finally being determined. If the results of House District 16 and House District 19 still hold after recounts are conducted, Democrats will have lost their supermajority in the House. Historically, recounts have typically only shifted election outcomes by one or two votes. Automatic recounts are required to be conducted within 31 days after the election.

In House District 16, Rebecca Keltie (R) is still ahead of incumbent Stephanie Vigil (D) by seven  votes as of Thursday evening. Because the vote totals between the two candidates are within half of a percentage point, an automatic recount is triggered. 

In House District 19, former state representative Dan Woog (R) is still ahead of his opponent Jillaire McMillan (D) for his old House seat by 168 votes. This is just barely within the half of a percentage point margin, so a recount will be required here too, but unlikely to change the outcome.

Although Democrat candidates in both races had a pretty decisive lead on election night, both races ended up being incredibly close and required intense ballot curing for House Republicans to pull off flipping three seats.

Governor Polis Presents Budget Proposal to JBC 

On Wednesday, Governor Polis presented his budget proposal to the Joint Budget Committee (JBC). This comes after a very tense release of his budget last week, in which he called for several programs to be cut across all departments, in an attempt to alleviate the state’s projected deficit of nearly $1 billion. The general tone throughout the presentation was an understanding amongst committee members that difficult choices will need to be made in the context of an extremely tight budget year. The discussion throughout the presentation included skepticism from both sides of the aisle. 

For education, Polis’ proposal included a phased-in new school funding formula over seven years, instead of the current plan of 6 years,  to fund school districts based on a current year enrollment estimate. Polis also  reiterated in the presentation that he has no intention of bringing back the budget stabilization factor, which was eliminated earlier this year in order to provide full funding to public education. The Governor’s proposal also includes turning the entire Auraria Higher Education Center (AHEC) into an enterprise, but this has raised questions if this is workable and will require more research from state budget experts.

On the Medicaid side, both Democrat and Republican members of the JBC raised concerns over proposed cuts to Medicaid provider rates. These provider rates were just recently approved by the legislature, and could threaten vulnerable patients, as well as providers. 

Governor Polis’ proposal includes privatizing Pinnacol Assurance, which is the state’s insurer of last resort. Pinnacol provides workers’ compensation coverage to over 50,000 businesses in Colorado. This particular piece of the proposal raised concerns from JBC members on both sides of the aisle because privatization would increase the risk of higher costs.

The JBC began meeting this week, and will meet every week through the end of the year. Meetings will include briefings and presentations from across state departments and agencies, and continuing discussions related to the state’s tight budget. 

Full JBC schedule
Governor Polis Budget Letter FY 2025-2026
Governor Polis Budget Proposal Slide Deck

Senator Hansen Announces Resignation in January

Earlier this week, Senator Chris Hansen announced that he plans to accept a position as CEO of the La Plata Electric Association, and will resign from his seat in Senate District 31 in January. As a result, a vacancy committee will have to convene and appoint someone to fill Hansen’s seat. 

Current House Representative Steven Woodrow (House District 2), as well as Representative Elect Sean Camacho (House District 6), have expressed interest in the appointment. Both Woodrow’s and Camacho’s house districts are included in Senate District 31. Camacho defeated former state Representative Elisabeth Epps earlier this year in the primary for House District 6, which is located in Denver. Woodrow was just elected for a 3rd term to represent House District 2.

If Camacho receives the appointment to replace Hansen in Senate District 31, there would be a vacancy left in House District 6. In the event there’s a vacancy to fill if Camacho heads to the Senate, former state House candidate Katie March has publicly expressed interest in filling the seat. In 2022, March ran against Elisabeth Epps in the primary for the seat in House District 6, but narrowly lost to Epps. Hansen has stated publicly that he supports Camacho and March. There would also be a vacancy committee called to pick the replacement for Representative Woodrow but no names as potential candidates have publicly surfaced yet.